A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions

Shinichiro Fujimori; Volker Krey; Detlef van Vuuren; Ken Oshiro; Masahiro Sugiyama; Puttipong Chunark; Bundit Limmeechokchai; Shivika Mittal; Osamu Nishiura; Chan Park; Salony Rajbhandari; Diego Silva Herran; Tran Thanh Tu; Shiya Zhao; Yuki Ochi; Priyardarshi R. Shukla; Toshihiko Masui; Phuong V.H. Nguyen; Anique Marie Cabardos; Keywan Riahi

doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01048-z

A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions

Shinichiro Fujimori, Volker Krey, Detlef van Vuuren, Ken Oshiro, Masahiro Sugiyama, Puttipong Chunark, Bundit Limmeechokchai, Shivika Mittal, Osamu Nishiura, Chan Park, Salony Rajbhandari, Diego Silva Herran, Tran Thanh Tu, Shiya Zhao, Yuki Ochi, Priyardarshi R. Shukla, Toshihiko Masui, Phuong V.H. Nguyen, Anique Marie Cabardos, Keywan Riahi

Department of Landscape Architecture

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

32 Scopus citations

Abstract

National-level climate actions will be vital in achieving global temperature goals in the coming decades. Near-term (2025–2030) plans are laid out in Nationally Determined Contributions; the next step is the submission of long-term strategies for 2050. At present, national scenarios underpinning long-term strategies are poorly coordinated and incompatible across countries, preventing assessment of individual nations’ climate policies. Here we present a systematic and standardized, yet flexible, scenario framework varying 2050 emissions to build long-term national energy and climate mitigation scenarios. Applying the framework to six major Asian countries reveals individual challenges in energy system transformation and investment needs in comparable scenarios. This framework could be a starting point for comprehensive assessments as input to the Global Stocktake over the coming years.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	472-480
Number of pages	9
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	11
Issue number	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01048-z
State	Published - Jun 2021

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Fujimori, S., Krey, V., van Vuuren, D., Oshiro, K., Sugiyama, M., Chunark, P., Limmeechokchai, B., Mittal, S., Nishiura, O., Park, C., Rajbhandari, S., Silva Herran, D., Tu, T. T., Zhao, S., Ochi, Y., Shukla, P. R., Masui, T., Nguyen, P. V. H., Cabardos, A. M., & Riahi, K. (2021). A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions. Nature Climate Change, 11(6), 472-480. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01048-z

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title = "A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions",

abstract = "National-level climate actions will be vital in achieving global temperature goals in the coming decades. Near-term (2025–2030) plans are laid out in Nationally Determined Contributions; the next step is the submission of long-term strategies for 2050. At present, national scenarios underpinning long-term strategies are poorly coordinated and incompatible across countries, preventing assessment of individual nations{\textquoteright} climate policies. Here we present a systematic and standardized, yet flexible, scenario framework varying 2050 emissions to build long-term national energy and climate mitigation scenarios. Applying the framework to six major Asian countries reveals individual challenges in energy system transformation and investment needs in comparable scenarios. This framework could be a starting point for comprehensive assessments as input to the Global Stocktake over the coming years.",

author = "Shinichiro Fujimori and Volker Krey and {van Vuuren}, Detlef and Ken Oshiro and Masahiro Sugiyama and Puttipong Chunark and Bundit Limmeechokchai and Shivika Mittal and Osamu Nishiura and Chan Park and Salony Rajbhandari and {Silva Herran}, Diego and Tu, {Tran Thanh} and Shiya Zhao and Yuki Ochi and Shukla, {Priyardarshi R.} and Toshihiko Masui and Nguyen, {Phuong V.H.} and Cabardos, {Anique Marie} and Keywan Riahi",

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year = "2021",

month = jun,

doi = "10.1038/s41558-021-01048-z",

language = "English",

volume = "11",

pages = "472--480",

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Fujimori, S, Krey, V, van Vuuren, D, Oshiro, K, Sugiyama, M, Chunark, P, Limmeechokchai, B, Mittal, S, Nishiura, O, Park, C, Rajbhandari, S, Silva Herran, D, Tu, TT, Zhao, S, Ochi, Y, Shukla, PR, Masui, T, Nguyen, PVH, Cabardos, AM & Riahi, K 2021, 'A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions', Nature Climate Change, vol. 11, no. 6, pp. 472-480. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01048-z

TY - JOUR

T1 - A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions

AU - Fujimori, Shinichiro

AU - Krey, Volker

AU - van Vuuren, Detlef

AU - Oshiro, Ken

AU - Sugiyama, Masahiro

AU - Chunark, Puttipong

AU - Limmeechokchai, Bundit

AU - Mittal, Shivika

AU - Nishiura, Osamu

AU - Park, Chan

AU - Rajbhandari, Salony

AU - Silva Herran, Diego

AU - Tu, Tran Thanh

AU - Zhao, Shiya

AU - Ochi, Yuki

AU - Shukla, Priyardarshi R.

AU - Masui, Toshihiko

AU - Nguyen, Phuong V.H.

AU - Cabardos, Anique Marie

AU - Riahi, Keywan

PY - 2021/6

Y1 - 2021/6

N2 - National-level climate actions will be vital in achieving global temperature goals in the coming decades. Near-term (2025–2030) plans are laid out in Nationally Determined Contributions; the next step is the submission of long-term strategies for 2050. At present, national scenarios underpinning long-term strategies are poorly coordinated and incompatible across countries, preventing assessment of individual nations’ climate policies. Here we present a systematic and standardized, yet flexible, scenario framework varying 2050 emissions to build long-term national energy and climate mitigation scenarios. Applying the framework to six major Asian countries reveals individual challenges in energy system transformation and investment needs in comparable scenarios. This framework could be a starting point for comprehensive assessments as input to the Global Stocktake over the coming years.

AB - National-level climate actions will be vital in achieving global temperature goals in the coming decades. Near-term (2025–2030) plans are laid out in Nationally Determined Contributions; the next step is the submission of long-term strategies for 2050. At present, national scenarios underpinning long-term strategies are poorly coordinated and incompatible across countries, preventing assessment of individual nations’ climate policies. Here we present a systematic and standardized, yet flexible, scenario framework varying 2050 emissions to build long-term national energy and climate mitigation scenarios. Applying the framework to six major Asian countries reveals individual challenges in energy system transformation and investment needs in comparable scenarios. This framework could be a starting point for comprehensive assessments as input to the Global Stocktake over the coming years.

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U2 - 10.1038/s41558-021-01048-z

DO - 10.1038/s41558-021-01048-z

M3 - Review article

AN - SCOPUS:85106757342

SN - 1758-678X

VL - 11

SP - 472

EP - 480

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

IS - 6

ER -

A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions

Abstract

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