A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions

Shinichiro Fujimori, Volker Krey, Detlef van Vuuren, Ken Oshiro, Masahiro Sugiyama, Puttipong Chunark, Bundit Limmeechokchai, Shivika Mittal, Osamu Nishiura, Chan Park, Salony Rajbhandari, Diego Silva Herran, Tran Thanh Tu, Shiya Zhao, Yuki Ochi, Priyardarshi R. Shukla, Toshihiko Masui, Phuong V.H. Nguyen, Anique Marie Cabardos, Keywan Riahi

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

31 Scopus citations


National-level climate actions will be vital in achieving global temperature goals in the coming decades. Near-term (2025–2030) plans are laid out in Nationally Determined Contributions; the next step is the submission of long-term strategies for 2050. At present, national scenarios underpinning long-term strategies are poorly coordinated and incompatible across countries, preventing assessment of individual nations’ climate policies. Here we present a systematic and standardized, yet flexible, scenario framework varying 2050 emissions to build long-term national energy and climate mitigation scenarios. Applying the framework to six major Asian countries reveals individual challenges in energy system transformation and investment needs in comparable scenarios. This framework could be a starting point for comprehensive assessments as input to the Global Stocktake over the coming years.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)472-480
Number of pages9
JournalNature Climate Change
Issue number6
StatePublished - Jun 2021


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