A model for predicting the future risk of incident erosive esophagitis in an asymptomatic population undergoing regular check-ups

Erosive esophagitis is a major risk factor for Barrett esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma. Information regarding the putative risk factors for developing erosive esophagitis is considerably heterogeneous; thus, a risk model is required to clinically predict the incidence of erosive esophagitis. This study was to derive and validate a predictive model for the incidence of developing erosive esophagitis after negative index endoscopy in a population subjected to routine health check-ups. This retrospective cohort study of health check-ups included 11,535 patients who underwent repeated screening endoscopy after >3 years from a negative index endoscopy. We used logistic regression analysis to predict the incidence of erosive esophagitis, and a Simple Prediction of Erosive Esophagitis Development score for risk assessment was developed and internally validated using the split-sample approach. The development and validation cohorts included 5765 patients (675 with erosive esophagitis [11.7%]) and 5770 patients (670 with erosive esophagitis [11.6%]), respectively. The final model included sex, smoking behavior, body mass index, hypertension, and the triglyceride level as variables. This model predicted 667 cases of erosive esophagitis, yielding an expected-Toobserved ratio of 1.00 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92-1.07). A simplified 5-item risk scoring system based on coefficients was developed, with a risk of erosive esophagitis of 6.2% (95% CI, 5.2-7.1) for the low-risk group (score ≤2), 15.1% (95% CI, 13.5-16.6) for the intermediate-risk group (score ≤3, 4), and 18.2%(95%CI, 15.2-21.3) for the high-risk group (score ≤5). The discriminative performance of the risk-prediction score was consistent in the derivation cohort and validation cohort (c-statistics 0.68 and 0.64, respectively); the calibration was good (Brier score 0.099 and 0.1, respectively). In conclusion, a simple risk-scoring model using putative risk factors can predict the future incidence of developing erosive esophagitis in asymptomatic populations.