Analysis of inter-relationships between urban decline and urban sprawl in city-regions of South Korea

This paper identifies inter-relationships between the urban decline in core areas and urban sprawl in hinterlands using 50 city-regions of South Korea. We measured decline- and sprawl-related indicators and estimated a simultaneous equations model using Three-Stage Least Squares. The results show that population decline and employment decline have a different relationship with urban sprawl. While population decline has a negative impact on the urban sprawl in the density aspect, employment decline worsens the urban sprawl in the morphological aspect. Another result suggests that the difference is related to declining patterns of population and employment. Cities that are experiencing population decline in the core area are likely to lose population in their hinterlands as well. On the other hand, the employment decline in the core area shows a positive correlation with employment growth in hinterlands. The results imply that suburbanization of jobs and the inefficient land use exacerbate the urban sprawl in the morphological aspect. Thus, local governments should pay attention to migration patterns of employment and make multi-jurisdictional efforts. Furthermore, growth management and urban regeneration policies should go hand in hand to tackle this issue.