Analysis of national PM_2.5 (FPM and CPM) emissions by past, current, and future energy mix scenarios in the Republic of Korea

The main purpose of this study was to analyze the Korean PM_2.5 emissions according to the past, present, and future energy mix scenarios from 1970 to 2035, with the aim of identifying a sustainable, future environmentally friendly energy mix scenario for Korea related to PM_2.5 emissions. To calculate the PM_2.5 emissions according to an energy mix plan, we assumed two scenarios: (1) Scenario 1 is based on an energy conversion scenario established by the Korean government's 7th electric power demand supply program; and (2) Scenario 2 is enhancement of fuel cell usage. In Scenario 1, filterable PM_2.5 (FPM_2.5) emission was calculated as 61,158 ton/year, which includes contributions of anthracite (46.8%), petroleum (39.7%), natural gas (LNG) (10.0%), and LPG (0.1%). In Scenario 2, FPM_2.5 emission was calculated as 36,917 ton/year, which includes contributions of petroleum (47.8%), anthracite (40.3%), bituminous coal (10.1%), and LNG (1.7%). Thus, we concluded that the FPM_2.5 mitigation effect from fuel cell policy enforcement is about 38.13% higher than the Korean national energy conversion policy. PM_2.5 (FPM2.5 + condensable PM2.5 (CPM_2.5)) emissions dramatically increased in both energy mix scenarios so that CPM_2.5 should be considered when estimating PM_2.5 emissions and PM_2.5 reduction.