Dissolution risk and legislative effort of politicians

In parliamentary countries where snap elections are allowed, politicians are uncertain as to whether their term will end prematurely following dissolution—and if so, when. We analyze the extent to which dissolution risk affects politicians’ legislative effort and identify which cohort of politicians is more susceptible to the risk. Using the monthly dissolution risk index that we construct based on the frequency of newspaper coverage on dissolution in Japan from 2005 to 2016, we find that one standard deviation increase in the index reduced attendance by 2.64 meetings at the individual legislator-monthly level in the lower house. The members in the lower house with greater seniority, nominal-only members, dual-listed members, and those who previously won a close election were particularly more sensitive to dissolution risk.