Abstract
The objective of this research is to develop a dynamic model to forecast multi interval path travel times between bus stops of origin and destination. The research also intends to test the proposed model using real-world data. This research was brought about by the shortcomings of the existing real-time based short-term-prediction models, which have been widely utilised for single interval predictions. The developed model is based on the Nearest Neighbour Non-Parametric Regression using historical and current data collected by the Automatic Vehicle Location technology. In a test with real-world bus data in Seoul, Korea, the proposed multi-interval-prediction model performed effectively in terms of both prediction accuracy and computing time.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 19-38 |
Number of pages | 20 |
Journal | Transportmetrica |
Volume | 6 |
Issue number | 1 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - 2010 |
Keywords
- Bus arrival information
- Multi-interval
- Non-parametric regression
- Travel time prediction