Dynamic multi-interval bus travel time prediction using bus transit data

Hyunho Chang, Dongjoo Park, Seungjae Lee, Hosang Lee, Seungkirl Baek

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

110 Scopus citations


The objective of this research is to develop a dynamic model to forecast multi interval path travel times between bus stops of origin and destination. The research also intends to test the proposed model using real-world data. This research was brought about by the shortcomings of the existing real-time based short-term-prediction models, which have been widely utilised for single interval predictions. The developed model is based on the Nearest Neighbour Non-Parametric Regression using historical and current data collected by the Automatic Vehicle Location technology. In a test with real-world bus data in Seoul, Korea, the proposed multi-interval-prediction model performed effectively in terms of both prediction accuracy and computing time.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)19-38
Number of pages20
Issue number1
StatePublished - 2010


  • Bus arrival information
  • Multi-interval
  • Non-parametric regression
  • Travel time prediction


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