Effects of land-use-change scenarios on terrestrial carbon stocks in South Korea

The amount of carbon stored in soil and vegetation varies according to land use. Land-use changes (LUCs) affect those carbon stocks. Changes in carbon stocks also affect greenhouse gas emissions. Predicting LUCs is therefore necessary to establish quantitative targets for carbon dioxide (CO₂) reduction. This study attempts to model LUCs and the associated changes in carbon stocks for South Korea between 2005 and 2030. It examines four LUC scenarios suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Each scenario is assessed in terms of its effect on South Korean carbon stocks. Under all four scenarios, afforestation leads to carbon sequestration with an average net uptake of 22.4–31.5 MtC. The scenario yielding the highest sequestration rate increase (from 12.4 to 14.1 MtC/year) results in levels of sequestration equal to 8.3 % of South Korea’s 2005 CO₂ emissions. This is equivalent to a value of 304 million dollars in the European Union carbon market. Clear differences among the scenarios tested suggest that land use must be regarded as an important factor in any plan for future carbon sequestration.