Estimating landslide susceptibility areas considering the uncertainty inherent in modeling methods

Ho Gul Kim, Dong Kun Lee, Chan Park, Yoonjung Ahn, Sung Ho Kil, Sunyong Sung, Gregory S. Biging

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

35 Scopus citations


Landslides are one of the most dangerous types of natural disasters, and damage due to landslides has been increasing in certain regions of the world because of increased precipitation. Policy decision makers require reliable information that can be used to establish spatial adaptation plans to protect people from landslide hazards. Researchers presently identify areas susceptible to landslides using various spatial distribution models. However, such data are associated with a high amount of uncertainty. This study focuses on quantifying the uncertainty of several spatial distribution models and identifying the effectiveness of various ensemble methods that can be used to provide reliable information to support policy decisions. The area of study was Inje-gun, Republic of Korea. Ten models were selected to assess landslide susceptibility. Moreover, five ensemble methods were selected for the aggregated results of the 10 models. The uncertainty was quantified using the coefficient of variation and the uncertainty map we developed revealed areas with strongly differing values among single models. A matrix map was created using an ensemble map and a coefficient of variation map. Using matrix analysis, we identified the areas that are most susceptible to landslides according to the ensemble model with a low uncertainty. Thus, the ensemble model can be a useful tool for supporting decision makers. The framework of this study can also be employed to support the establishment of landslide adaptation plans in other areas of the Republic of Korea and in other countries.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2987-3019
Number of pages33
JournalStochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Issue number11
StatePublished - 1 Nov 2018


  • Adaptation plans
  • Coefficient of variation
  • Ensemble model
  • Spatial distribution model


Dive into the research topics of 'Estimating landslide susceptibility areas considering the uncertainty inherent in modeling methods'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this