Finite mixture modeling approach for developing crash modification factors in highway safety analysis

B. J. Park, C. Lee, D. Lord, D. G. Kim

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the relative performance of two alternative models (negative binomial (NB) model and two-component finite mixture of negative binomial models (FMNB-2)) in terms of crash modification factors (CFMs). For a modeling dataset, rural multilane segment crash data for divided highways in California and Texas were used. The resultant CMF function from the FMNB-2 model showed several good properties over the NB model. First, the safety effect of a covariate was better reflected by the CMF function from the FMNB-2 model, since the model takes into account the differential responsiveness of crash frequency to the covariate. Second, the safety effect did not increase continuously without a limit, but leveled off after a certain value of the covariate, which makes more logical sense. However, there was a possibility that a U-shaped relationship could be found, which opens up a new avenue for discussion among highway safety community.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 19th International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies, HKSTS 2014 - Transportation and Infrastructure
EditorsZ. Leng, Y. H. Wang
PublisherHong Kong Society for Transportation Studies Limited
Pages493-500
Number of pages8
ISBN (Electronic)9789881581433
StatePublished - 2014
Event19th International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies: Transportation and Infrastructure, HKSTS 2014 - Hong Kong, China
Duration: 13 Dec 201415 Dec 2014

Publication series

NameProceedings of the 19th International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies, HKSTS 2014 - Transportation and Infrastructure

Conference

Conference19th International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies: Transportation and Infrastructure, HKSTS 2014
Country/TerritoryChina
CityHong Kong
Period13/12/1415/12/14

Keywords

  • Crash modification factor
  • Finite mixture model
  • Highway safety
  • Negative binomial model

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