FLUS 모델 기반 토지피복 변화에 따른 탄소 저장량 분석

Quantitative evaluation of the impacts of land cover changes on ecosystem services is essential for establishing sustainable urban development and ecosystem conservation strategies. This study applied the dynamic simulation model FLUS (Future Land Use Simulation) and the ecosystem service valuation model InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) to predict the land cover state in 2024 in the southern region of Gyeonggi Province under various scenarios and to quantitatively evaluate the corresponding changes in carbon storage. Model validation showed that the FLUS model demonstrated high reliability, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.945 and an overall accuracy of 0.959, confirming its capability to realistically simulate future land cover conditions in the target region. Scenario analysis revealed that in the natural growth scenario, urban expansion led to reduced forest and wetland areas, consequently decreasing carbon storage. Conversely, the ecological conservation scenario restricted urban expansion, preserved forest and wetland areas, and maintained the highest carbon storage levels. This study contributes by overcoming the limitations of static approaches through dynamic simulation, quantitatively assessing the impacts of urbanization and ecological conservation policies on ecosystem services. Future research should include further assessments of diverse ecosystem services such as water circulation, microclimates, and biodiversity, along with parameter optimization to enhance prediction accuracy. Additionally, the findings of this study can serve as scientific evidence for urban growth management and natural environment conservation policy formulation, aiding balanced development decisions involving various stakeholders.