Integrated water suspension risk assessment using fault tree analysis and genetic algorithm in water supply systems

Water supply systems are exposed to various risks as they operate in an open environment. For example, climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of droughts and water shortages. Furthermore, suspensions in water supply resulting from pipe failures and aging infrastructure result in significant economic losses to consumers and supply operators. Thus, water supply systems require integrated risk management owing to the complex interactions between subsystems; however, in most existing risk assessment studies, only single risks or individual systems are considered. Here, we analyze various causes of water supply suspensions and propose an evaluation methodology based on fault tree analysis. We also develop a genetic algorithm-based model that allows waterworks operators to optimize management plans aimed at reducing water suspension risks while simultaneously considering impact and cost.