Model-wise uncertainty decomposition in multi-model ensemble hydrological projections

Ilsang Ohn, Seonghyeon Kim, Seung Beom Seo, Young Oh Kim, Yongdai Kim

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Scopus citations


There has been a growing interest in model-wise uncertainty decomposition, which quantifies contribution of individual models such as emission scenarios, global circulation models, bias correction techniques and hydrological models, to the total uncertainty of a hydrological projection. However, little research has been conducted for model-wise uncertainty decomposition in spite of its usefulness. In this paper, we propose a novel method for decomposing the total uncertainties into model-wise uncertainties. The proposed model-wise uncertainty decomposition method can be applied with general uncertainty measures, which include mean absolute deviation and variance measures. Moreover, the proposed method provides an intuitive interpretation of the quantified model-wise uncertainties. The results of analyzing real data by the proposed method are presented.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2549-2565
Number of pages17
JournalStochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Issue number12
StatePublished - Dec 2021


  • Hydrological projection
  • Model-wise uncertainties
  • Multimodel ensemble
  • Uncertainty decomposition


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