Modeling spatial climate change landuse adaptation with multi-objective genetic algorithms to improve resilience for rice yield and species richness and to mitigate disaster risk

Eun Joo Yoon, James H. Thorne, Chan Park, Dong Kun Lee, Kwang Soo Kim, Heeyeun Yoon, Changwan Seo, Chul Hee Lim, Haeryung Kim, Young Il Song

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

13 Scopus citations

Abstract

As climate change is ongoing, many studies have recently focused on adaptation to climate change from a spatial perspective. However little is known about how changing the spatial composition of landuse could improve climate change resilience. Consideration of climate change impacts when spatially allocating landuse could be a useful and fundamental long term adaptation strategy, particularly for regional planning. Here, we identify climate adaptation scenarios based on existing extents of three landuse classes using multi-objective genetic algorithms for a 9982 km 2 region with 3.5 million inhabitants in South Korea. We selected five objectives for adaptation based on predicted climate change impacts and regional economic conditions: minimization of disaster damage and existing landuse conversion, maximization of rice yield, protection of high species richness areas, and economic value. We generated 17 Pareto landuse scenarios by six weighted combinations of the adaptation objectives. Most scenarios, although varying in magnitude, showed better performance than the current spatial landuse composition for all adaptation objectives, suggesting that some alteration of current landuse patterns could increase overall climate resilience. Given the flexible structure of the optimization model, we expect that regional stakeholders could efficiently generate other scenarios by adjusting model parameters (weighting combinations) or replacing input data (impact maps), and selecting a scenario depending on preference or a number of problem-related factors.

Original languageEnglish
Article number024001
JournalEnvironmental Research Letters
Volume14
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - 21 Jan 2019

Keywords

  • South Korea
  • economic value
  • landslides
  • landuse conversion
  • scenario planning
  • trade-offs

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