Movie Box Office Prediction With Self-Supervised and Visually Grounded Pretraining

Investments in movie production are associated with a high level of risk as movie revenues have long-tailed and bimodal distributions [1]. Accurate prediction of box-office revenue may mitigate the uncertainty and encourage investment. However, learning effective representations for actors, directors, and user-generated content-related keywords remains a challenging open problem. In this work, we investigate the effects of self-supervised pretraining and propose visual grounding of content keywords in objects from movie posters as a pretraining objective. Experiments on a large dataset of 35,794 movies demonstrate significant benefits of self-supervised training and visual grounding. In particular, visual grounding pretraining substantially improves learning on movies with content keywords and achieves 14.5% relative performance gains compared to a finetuned BERT model with identical architecture.