Scenario to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Building Sector towards the goal of Carbon Neutrality by 2050

This study analyzes the possibility of achieving the goal of carbon neutrality in building sector by 2050. This study used data on building energy intensity by building type and gross floor area of buildings. For this data, we get the data from the National Building Energy Database and national statistical database from 2015 to 2019. The types of buildings for analysis are detached houses, apartments, commercial buildings and educational buildings. These energy consumptions of building sector were converted into greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To this end, the prediction of GHG emissions in building sector has increased steadily from 156.9 million ton CO₂e in 2020 to 217.8 million ton CO₂e in 2050. The suggested reduction scenarios in this study were 5 scenarios as mandatory scenario for zero energy building for new buildings, green-remodeling scenario for existing buildings, dissemination scenario for high-efficiency energy facilities, scenario for behavior improvement and scenario for low carbon energy source. The result of this study shows that the potential reduction emissions is about 107.7 million ton CO₂e by these scenarios in 2050. This result told us that the possibility of 2050 carbon neutrality in Korea’s building sector is low based on these scenarios. This study suggested the necessity for very challenging reduction plans and is expected to help establish the reduction policies for building sector.