Spatial assessment of urban flood susceptibility using data mining and geographic information system (GIS) tools

Using geographic information system (GIS) tools and data-mining models, this study analyzed the relationships between flood areas and correlated hydrological factors to map the regional flood susceptibility of the Seoul metropolitan area in South Korea. We created a spatial database of data describing factors including topography, geology, soil, and land use. We used 2010 flood data for training and 2011 data for model validation. Frequency ratio (FR) and logistic regression (LR) models were applied to 2010 flood data to determine the relationships between the flooded area and its causal factors and to derive flood-susceptibility maps, which were substantiated using the area flooded in 2011 (not used for training). As a result of the accuracy validation, FR and LR model results were shown to have 79.61% and 79.05% accuracy, respectively. In terms of sustainability, floods affect water health as well as causing economic and social damage. These maps will provide useful information to decision makers for the implementation of flood-mitigation policies in priority areas in urban sustainable development and for flood prevention and management. In addition to this study, further analysis including data on economic and social activities, proximity to nature, and data on population and building density, will make it possible to improve sustainability.