The effect of trust in government on elections during the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea

Recent studies focused on the pandemic's effect on elections, examining partial government interventions (e.g., lockdowns) or a specific area within a country. Governments have taken a variety of nationwide measures in reaction to the pandemic, and they may or may not be working in the best interests of citizens. If citizens believe that a government demonstrates competence, benevolence and honesty in making pandemic-related decisions, trust in that government may grow, affecting election results. Using data for trust in government and nationwide elections during the pandemic in South Korea, we find that trust in government completely mediates the relationship between the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and the results of elections (i.e., ruling party's win and vote share).