The future of biofuels in the United States transportation sector

There is a growing need to produce renewable liquid fuels for heavy duty transportation and aviation, and cellulosic biomass is a promising source for those fuels. However, the many conversion options for biomass to fuels have not been systematically studied in the context of the USA transportation sector. Accordingly, we improve the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) model to include a rich suite of potential biofuel conversion pathways. We further add region-specific CO₂ transportation and injection costs and current USA tax credits to study the potential of biofuels under realistic cost scenarios. We show that while under current credits, biofuels play a role only in some regions of the USA, a range of scenarios such as increased tax credits, increased biomass availability, or increased oil price could all lead to biofuels playing a significant role.