To heat or burn? Evidence from heated tobacco product adoption in South Korea

This paper examines the determinants that induce smokers to switch from conventional cigarettes to heated tobacco products (HTPs). To this end, we collected survey data for Korean adults consisting of 2,356 non-smokers, 1,316 conventional cigarette smokers, and 842 HTP smokers. By employing a bivariate Probit model with sample selection, we estimated the sequential decision process of product choice, whether to smoke, and which tobacco product to choose if they smoked. Our results showed that those who were young, female, and more educated and had under-age children, indoor occupations, and higher health concerns were more likely to switch to HTPs. Furthermore, the incentive to switch to HTPs from conventional cigarettes is aligned with the incentive to quit smoking or become non-smokers. In contrast, we found no evidence that HTPs serve as a gateway for the initiation of smoking. These results suggest that HTPs can play a role in bridging smoking regulations, and that policymakers need to consider their role in designing taxation and health policies.