Utilization of ecosystem services in future vision decision-making for climate-resilient cities

In the face of uncertain future climate change, city policy decision-makers must choose strategies that promote climate-resilient development. Nature-based solutions (NbSs) are considered important for solving urban problems, such as carbon neutrality, improving human well-being, and enhancing biodiversity. This study aimed to examine the possibility of using ecosystem services in decision-making for the future scenarios of the city, considering land use change and climate change in combination. Representative ecosystem services of eco-friendly urban paradigms were selected, and ecosystem services and synergies were analyzed when (1) only land use change was considered, and (2) climate change (RCP 8.5) and land use change were both considered. The selected ecosystem services were analyzed using statistical and model-based methods (InVest, MaxEnt) applied to each characteristic and collectible data. The results revealed that food (rice and fishery production) was affected by land use change, recreation and leisure was affected by external activities and climate change. Carbon uptake was affected by both climate change and land use change. Regarding synergy, the amount of carbon uptake decreased by − 1.60% in BAU (S1) and increased by 24.39% in Smart Shrinkage City (S3); however, regarding recreation, the differences depended on the scenarios, such as an increase in S1 by 5.26% and an increase in S3 by 0.99%. We expect that land use change and ecosystem services can provide policymakers with quantitative information, and they can discuss priorities and alternatives.